July 25, 2021

“At the end of the regional elections, it is Macron’s ability to perpetuate the political model that he gave birth that will be judged”

Lhe nationalization of the regional elections in June, now registered by all political actors, is turning into a test of truth for the presidential party. One year before the 2022 meeting, everything that underpinned Emmanuel Macron’s victory in 2017, the exhaustion of the old world, the overcoming of the left-right divide in favor of a new “progressive” grouping , will be questioned on the occasion of an election whose vocation was however only regional.

Many, within the majority, have contested this approach, François Bayrou in particular, who pleaded for these elections to remain local, that the national staffs above all do not put their finger on it. What national value to give them if the abstention reaches a record as in the last municipal elections of 2020? But the pressure was too strong, each actor on the left, on the right or from the National Rally (RN) wanted to do battle, to prove that the macronist construction of 2017 was only a figment of the mind, a clever ploy to s’ seize power and then nothing.

The choice to deny this issue was judged at the Elysée to be more dangerous than that of facing it. About fifteen members of the government are engaged in the battle, the President of the Republic will increase, on the sidelines of the campaign, travel and positions. At the end of the two rounds scheduled for June 20 and 27, it is the ability of Emmanuel Macron to perpetuate the political model that he gave birth to that will be judged.

Fratricidal Duel

The Republic on the move (LRM) approaches the fight on the defensive: too young, it has no record to make, unlike the right, which chaired seven regions and the left five. In Brittany, the successor of Jean-Yves Le Drian chose to remain loyal to the Socialist Party (PS), which prompted the presidential party to support one of its vice-presidents. Instead of the expected showcase, a fratricidal duel. Elsewhere, hopes of winning are concentrated in three regions, Center-Val de Loire, Pays de la Loire, New Aquitaine, but at this stage, victory is by no means assured.

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Where the RN is threatening, the presidential party has taken on the role of kingmaker, but nothing is obvious. In Hauts-de-France, Xavier Bertrand refuses any second-round alliance; in Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, the presence, from the first round, of “walkers” on the list led by Renaud Muselier (Les Républicains) has not yet created the hoped-for dynamic and, in Bourgogne-Franche-Comté , the socialist Marie-Guite Dufay sharply refused the outstretched hand.

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