Bitcoin’s bullish performance over the holidays was initially insufficient to leave the current upward sideways phase. Sustained profit-taking weighed on the prices of many cryptocurrencies in the past seven trading days. The area of decentralized finance (DeFi) is currently seeing a first ray of hope. Sushiswap (SUSHI) can continue to gain in price this week and tried to break its downward trend in the last few days of trading. The situation is similar for Uniswap (UNI), Aave (AAVE) and Pancakeswap (CAKE). Many DeFi projects could end their month-long course corrections and thus help this sector to regain its old strength. Investors should monitor the price development in this area more closely in the coming trading weeks.
Best price development among the top 10 Altcoins:
Avalanche’s course held up relatively well in the past week. Even on a weekly basis, the AVAX price only shows a slight discount and thus loses less of its value than its competition. If the AVAX price overcomes the resistance at USD 117.52 and subsequently also skips the red downtrend line, a retest of the high at USD 127.34 must first be planned.
Bullishe Variante (Avalanche)
Although Avalanche is currently showing a slight rate of consolidation, it is currently trading at USD 111.39 within striking distance of its previous highs. If the bulls manage to break the area around USD 117.52 per day’s closing price and also regain the Fibonacci 78 retracement at USD 122.85, an immediate retest of the December high at USD 127.34 is likely. If the price does not rebound significantly to the south and jumps the cross resistance from the horizontal resistance line and the upper Bollinger Band, an attack on the all-time high at USD 147.28 is conceivable in the coming weeks.
If Avalanche can then get stuck in this area, a mid-term march through to the area between USD 178.22 and USD 191.12 should be planned. Here investors should again realize their first profits. Should the entire crypto market be able to free itself from its relative price weakness in the coming weeks, a subsequent increase in the direction of the 161 Fibonacci extension at USD 217.84 is also conceivable in the medium term. Should Avalanche then stabilize above USD 200 after reaching this price target, an attack on the 261 Fibonacci extension at USD 261.45 is possible in the long term. This target mark continues to represent the maximum bullish price target for the coming months.
Bearishe Variante (Avalanche)
Although investors recently took profits with Avalanche, the bears failed to build up sustained selling pressure again. Already in the area of the EMA50 (orange) the price rebounded several times to the north. Should Avalanche drop below its weekly low at USD 99.10 in the coming trading days, another support level is already waiting at USD 96.22. The cross support consisting of horizontal support and the lower Bollinger band should be difficult to break through at the first attempt. If, on the other hand, the AVAX price falls below this support, the 50s Fibonacci retracement at USD 90.20 comes into focus again. Just below that, there is another strong support in the form of the supertrend. If the bears manage to undercut this support at the daily closing price, Avalanche should subsequently correct again towards USD 78.69. In addition to the 38 Fibonacci retracement, the low of December 13, 2021 is also here.
A directional decision for the coming trading weeks can therefore be expected in the range between USD 78.69 and USD 76.73. If Avalanche falls permanently below the green zone, the correction extends immediately to the EMA200 (blue) at USD 68.98. Again, increased resistance from the bull camp is to be expected. If there is no countermovement, however, an expansion of the correction up to the cross support from the 23rd Fibonacci retracement and MA200 (green) should be planned. If the bears can break through this zone, the maximum bearish price target of USD 51.41 moves into the focus of investors. Here you can find the low of October 12th last year. In this area at the latest, the bulls will want to stabilize the price in order to prevent a correction from widening towards USD 33.11. For now, investors can take advantage of short term consolidations towards the USD 90 for new entrants.
The RSI as well as the MACD indicator are currently trending sideways and cannot provide any fresh impetus. Only when the RSI indicator breaks out of the neutral zone between 45 and 55 does a new signal develop for this indicator.
Worst price development among the top 10 altcoins:
The Solana course is still in a phase of consolidation at the turn of the year. Most recently, the bulls did not succeed in stabilizing the SOL price again sustainably above its moving average lines EMA20 (red) and EMA50 (orange). Solana is currently threatening to give up the turquoise support area again and continue its corrective movement. In the event of a sustained fall below USD 171.04, the SOL price threatens to decline again towards the low of USD 150.03.
Bullishe Variante (Solana)
For the time being, the SOL course is tending further south. Starting from the clear rebound at USD 205.03, Solana slipped back into the turquoise support zone in the past trading week. The buy side should now do everything possible to stabilize the SOL price and to heave back over the cross resistance at USD 188.05. In addition to the 50s Fibonacci retracement, the EMA50 is currently also running at this price level. Only when the bulls can sustainably overcome this area of the chart will the area of the 61 Fibonacci retracement at USD 205.01 once again move into the focus of investors. Since the supertrend and the upper Bollinger band also run in this zone, a price ricochet should first be planned. Only when this strong resistance area is broken by the daily closing price does the chart clearly brighten in favor of the bulls. Then a follow-up move up to the resistance at USD 218.98 is likely.
The way to old strength
If the bulls can generate enough buying pressure, a march through to the 78 Fibonacci retracement at USD 229.19 is also conceivable. At the first attempt, the SOL course is likely to fail because of this resistance. If this resistance is pulverized in the medium term, the red resistance zone once again comes into focus as the target area. If the SOL rate subsequently surpasses the USD 240 area on a sustained basis, another attack towards the all-time high is conceivable. For this, however, Solana needs a re-strengthening overall market. Should the buyer side be able to send the price of Solana back towards its all-time high in the coming trading weeks, investors will focus on price targets at USD 299.14 and USD 315.26 as possible targets.
These resistance levels are derived from the 127 and 138 Fibonacci extensions. If Solana can subsequently stabilize above USD 260, a long-term march through to the repeatedly mentioned maximum price target of USD 348.94 is conceivable. Investors can build up their first long positions in the USD 150 area, but should still have food ready for a possible setback into the orange support zone in order to make their initial price cheaper.
Bearishe Variante (Solana)
Most recently, the bears fought off every attempt to climb Solana with flying colors and again pushed the SOL price in the direction of the 38 Fibonacci retracement at USD 171.04 in the past trading week. If this support is broken again dynamically, the consolidation initially expands to around USD 160. Here the lower Bollinger Band runs in the daily chart. If the SOL price drops this mark, a relapse back to USD 150.03 is to be expected. In addition to the low of December 13th and the 23rd Fibonacci retracement, the EMA200 (blue) is also not far below it. Increased resistance from the cops is likely in this area.
If the seller succeeds in selling the price of Solana at the daily closing price below 140 USD, the correction immediately expands to the MA200 (green) at 131.42 USD. Once again, the buyers will want to stabilize the SOL course. If the bears can maintain the selling pressure, Solana could give way to the orange zone in the medium term. A retest of USD 116.06 would then be conceivable. Initially, the SOL course should find a stop in this area. Should the overall market weaken again in the coming trading weeks, a relapse to the breakout level from August 2021 at USD 82.07 cannot be ruled out. In the medium term, Solana could even correct up to the old all-time high from May 2021. The maximum bearish price target remains unchanged at USD 55.93.
The MACD indicator and the RSI continue to trend south and are currently not delivering any sustainable signals. The RSI is currently again in its neutral zone between 45 and 55, but threatens to generate a new sell signal if the price weakness persists.
Stability of the top 10
The renewed price correction for Bitcoin is again causing price drops among the top 10 Altcoins after a last bullish week. All 10 cryptocurrencies follow Bitcoin’s negative price development and also show a price decline. Only Avalanche (AVAX) can respectfully pull itself out of the affair with just a two percent discount. With a price drop of four percent, the also tends to Binance Coin (BNB) is currently more bullish than the key crypto currency.
Solana (SOL) leads the list of weekly losers with a 12 percent discount. Ripple (XRP) and Dogecoin (DOGE) also tended to be weak, each with a nine percent price decline in the past trading week. A change of place is to be reported in the ranking list. Avalanche overtakes Dogecoin and climbs to ninth place.
Winner and Loser of the Week
At the beginning of the year, the top 100 altcoins showed a rather bearish picture. Only a good 30 percent of the top 100 Altcoins show a price increase in a weekly comparison. The list of weekly winners is led by yearn.finance (YFI) with a 28 percent increase in value, followed by Osmosis (OSMO) with 18 percent. As in the previous week, Sushi (SUSHI) can continue its rally and gain 17 percentage points. Cosmos (ATOM) are also bullish with 16 percent and Harmony (ONE) with 12 percent price plus. Looking at the list of underperformers, Kadena (KDA) in particular stands out with a 22 percent discount. With Decentraland (MANA) and The Sandbox (SAND), two Metaverse projects, each showing a price loss of 15 percentage points, are among the biggest weekly losers.
Olympus (OHM) is again weak with a 14 percent price drop. The positive price development of many Altcoins in the previous week does not seem to be sustainable so far. The mostly low sales in the last few trading days, however, only permit a limited forecast so far. As mentioned in the previous week’s analysis, larger traders and institutional investors are only gradually coming back from their Christmas vacation and are likely to make a decision on the direction in the next two trading weeks.
Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not constitute buy or sell recommendations. They are only an assessment of the analyst.
The chart images were created using TradingView created.
USD / EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: 0.88 euros.
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Bitcoins (BTC) weak start to the year weighs on the altcoin market